Formula for finding fantastic fares found

∏A = gUG + min(k-g, (1-g)(1-r)) 

This formula developed by Makoto Watanabe and Marc Möller from the University of Madrid is behind their research on the economics of airafes to be published shortly in the Economic Journal as “Advance Purchase Discounts versus Clearance Sales.” 
We all know the situation.
  • Book an airfare too early and you sometimes find the airfare goes down. Or your plans change.
  • Book an airfare too late and you will usually find the airfare goes up.
Watanabe and Möller have found that the best time to buy an air ticket is eight weeks before. They also found it is best to buy the ticket in the afternoon.
Others have suggested midnight to dawn on a Tuesday and Wednesday is the best time. This has been debunked. If you travel on a Tuesday or Wednesday, however, fares will be lower.


  1. As you might know I'm planning a trip to Denmark in January (it's for study, that's why I'm going in the middle of freaking winter!) — Århus, to be precise. Any suggestions for getting cheap airfares that time of year are greatly appreciated. I have ~87,000 frequent flyer points with Qantas if that's any help. 🙂

  2. will probably guess that January is BAD for cheap air flights BUT Do you know what dates? Every date at that time will have wide fluctuations in fares. The fares below have $200-$500 fluctuations either side DAY by DAY. All prices listed here are in $AAlso, when are you booking? Fares will climb rapidly for January.The other bad news is that frequent flyer seats almost do not exist. You may be able to do Qantas "Points plus pay" Buy a ticket with QF and they will let you use points to pay for part of it and cash to pay the rest. Personally, I think this option can be a poor return on points Look at but dont expect a good fare to Aarhus from Australia. Fares start at $2800 ret with Thai/SAS and jump to $3300 with Emirates/SAS and $9000 (yes) with Qantas/SAS. Five Other Options1. Copenhagen from Melbourne then train or bus. (Return rail from CPH to AAR is $130..bus is cheaper) China Southern has fares for $2300 (skyteam)Qatar has fares around $2500 (no alliance)Thai $2600 (star)Qantas $2700 (one world)SAS $2900 (star) SYD to CPH fares (use points to Sydney/take bus/train or fly for $200 ret):SAS $2300 Virgin $2600 (Virgin blue)Thai $2600Thai to BKK then Lufthansa $2700 (star)Qantas $2700Cathay to Hong kong connecting to Finnair allowing stopovers in both HK and Helsinki: $2699 (One world)2. One option is to fly a paid ticket to London, Frankfurt or Amsterdam, then train, Ryanair or points to Copenhagen. Fares are around $2200 for Malaysian, $2300 for Malaysian/KLM $2600 for Emirates3. Use Qantas "Points plus pay" Buying a ticket with QF to CPH and use 85 000 points to pay for it will reduce your fare by $800- $1000. 4. use points (very few seats left) or jetstar $$1000) or air asia to Kuala Lumpar, Bangkok or singapore or HK and find a cheap fare from there to CPH ($700 to $1000 to Asia and then $1500 to $1800 fares to CPH available). 5.I looked at using points or cheap fare to LAX (there were almost none) then flying from there to CPH for around $1000 with united/sas or sas or Virgin or Air France. Option not a winner.

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