In my last post, I showed how the airline industry has consolidated significantly, with most European and US airlines falling into just three mega-groups that control a significant share of the world’s seats. But the consolidation appears nowhere near over. The airline industry is genuinely hard to forecast. Hub airports, widebody fleets, equity stakes, and airline alliances play out over 10 to 20-year lifespans. The economic forecasts they are built on are inherently uncertain, however. Demand, fuel prices, regulation, geopolitics, industrial issues, climate policy, or air accidents can derail what looked like a sure path…

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