Crystal Balling the Gulf Crisis: How This War Could Reshape Air Travel

I should have learnt from 2020. In that year, I booked airfares in advance and, of course, could not use them. Some were refunded in cash, some were given to me as credits and some I never saw again.

I was feeling very pleased with myself in 2026 because, thanks to my global schedule, I locked in excellent airfares until February 2027. Who would have predicted that March 2026 would change the world as much as March 2020??

The United States and Israel are carrying out major airstrikes on Iran, and Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks across the region while tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz, badly disrupting global oil shipping and prices. Iran’s leadership is using the partial blockade as leverage in the tense negotiations, while President Donald Trump and other world powers debate how far to escalate. Millions have been directly impacted by the war, and both military personnel on multiple sides and civilians in multiple countries have died.

Air travel worldwide has been hit hard, as I noted in my posts on 1 and 23 March. Major hubs like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Kuwait are seeing closures, damage, or severe restrictions, and tens of thousands of flights have been cancelled or rerouted since the war began, affecting millions of passengers. Airlines are diverting around Iranian and Gulf airspace, adding hours to many Europe–Asia journeys, stranding large numbers of people, and driving up fares.

Higher fuel prices have sharply increased airline costs. Several governments, including Australia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, warn that local aviation fuel supplies will be rationed if the crisis continues.

Right now, there is no clear public timeline. Both Dubai and Doha have said operations are suspended “until further notice” and will resume only when their airspace is deemed safe. Qatar has partly reopened for limited evacuation and cargo flights, and the UAE has intermittently reopened airspace after short shutdowns, but regular passenger schedules at these big hubs depend on how the Iran war and missile/drone threat evolve over the coming days and weeks.

I’ve been doing some crystal‑ball thinking.

A short, sharp shock

If operations resume, say, next week, the core hub-and-spoke model and the underlying demand of the big Gulf carriers would be largely intact. Parked or redeployed aircraft will slowly return to pre-war network plans. Passengers would slowly return. They are likely to swing back into profit within a few quarters, as other large airlines have done after previous crises.

The important point is that a ceasefire does not mean an instant return to normal demand. Airlines can restore schedules quickly, but trust takes longer to rebuild, and tourism usually recovers last. So the likely sequence is: routes reopen first, fares ease next, bookings recover after that, and Gulf tourism only comes back in full once travellers believe the region is stable again.

Six months of stop–start closures,
Each closure wipes out high‑yield connecting traffic while their fixed costs (leases, debt, staff, maintenance) still have to be met.   2026 would be a massive loss‑making year for the Gulf carriers. Some would have to rely on state support and borrowing. Staff would face rotating furloughs, temporary pay cuts, and redeployment into cargo or charter work as normal. A portion of contractors and some lower‑seniority staff could be let go, as happened during the 2020 downturn. Some staff would resign, never to return.

More aircraft would be stored long‑term, older jets would be retired early, and new aircraft deliveries would be delayed. On resumption, schedules might be restructured to emphasise safer “edge” routes (to Europe, Africa, and South Asia), with fewer deep‑Asia connections. The reality is that Emirates and Qatar’s network dominance would be weakened for some time. Some traffic would shift to Turkish, European, and Asian hubs over the next three to five years. For some customers, this shift could be permanent.

Prolonged, structural shock: If the disruption lasts until April 2027
This would turn into an existential profitability crisis. Cumulative losses could run into many billions, balance sheets would be heavily stretched, and at least one of the major Gulf airlines would probably need a large recapitalisation. I suspect Baraijn’s Gulf Air might not make it, and Oman Air, which has already scaled down over the last year, would shrink further.

The Gulf carriers’ role as the world’s main East–West connectors would decline in both the short and long term, as the cheap, easy, high-frequency Gulf transit model becomes less reliable. Competitors would immediately start building new traffic patterns, and these shifts would likely persist, making it difficult for Gulf airlines to regain lost ground. Passengers would remember the lack of safety and reliability for a long, long time. People will choose other connection points. Businesses adjust. Holidaymakers will shift to destinations that feel simpler and safer to book.

Staff would face immediate, deep, and permanent workforce reductions, along with aggressive outsourcing. In the medium term, employment terms would reset, similar to the transitions US and European carriers underwent after 2020, but would happen in a compressed, more intense period.  You’d also see a “brain drain” as experienced pilots, engineers and cabin crew move to more stable airlines and regions.

Fleet plans would be completely rewritten, impacting Airbus and Boeing. Multiple wide‑body orders would be deferred or cancelled, and some aircraft would have to be sold.

The hubs, especially Addis Ababa, Singapore, Bangkok, Istanbul, and perhaps Saudi Arabia’s new projects, would seize share, permanently weakening Dubai and Doha as the default global crossroads for a decade. We may even see a pivot toward smaller, more regionally focused networks rather than massive global ones, especially from Etihad.

And I am not going to even discuss the economic impact on the Gulf region as a whole of a long term war.

Jet fuel

Jet fuel is one of the biggest pressure points. Airlines and analysts have already warned that fuel price spikes are driving up fares, and Reuters reported that oil prices and fuel costs are squeezing margins as passengers seek alternative routes. The full effect on flight prices may take three to six months to work through the system. We will probably not see cheap fares for a while. If countries run out of jetfuel, it will have devastating impacts on tourism, freight operations and food supplies.

Other Airlines
Some airlines may not survive this combination of fuel price shock and weaker demand. Ultra‑low‑cost carriers that were already restructuring, such as Spirit in the US, have warned that the war‑driven fuel surge directly threatens their recovery plans, and investors are openly questioning whether all of them will make it through.

Travellers

if the war drags out, I suspect more and more people will opt for holidays closer to home for a while. That may change longer term but in the medium term, I suspect people will look for staying close to their “backyard”.

In Conclusion

Whichever scenario occurs, it is a permanent change. The travel map will be redrawn, and the Gulf will have to fight to regain traffic that has already moved on. This is a situation none of us predicted. Hence, Gulf airlines and Gulf nations were predicting record numbers of customers in 2026. And why I booked three trips through the Gulf between October and December 2026.

What about you? Would you fly through the Gulf on a Gulf Airline again? What do you think the travel impact will be?

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